Like pretty much everyone, TD is not expecting much from the European Central Bank meeting this week (Wednesday 10 April 2019),
On the press conference:
- Draghi is almost certain to repeat that the risks are tilted to the downside, despite some constructive evolution of data. We don't see this changing until TLTROs are launched in September.
- Brexit is likely to feature during the press conference, and numerous ECB officials have expressed concerns recently that it poses significant downside risks.
TD on FX:
- With the Governing Council unlikely to provide any fresh policy signals, we downplay the April ECB meeting as a major directional driver for the EUR. The continued focus on "downside risks" will further temper the FX market's enthusiasm for any potential EUR upside. The downside may be similarly limited, however, by a lack of any new developments.
- We will be watching any mention of deposit rate tiering closely. Signs that these discussions are more advanced than currently suspected present one important downside risk for the EUR - at least in the near term. The actual policy risks may prove to be more two-way, but for now the market remains focused on the ECB's easing potential.
- Investors have interpreted a move toward tiered rates as a dovish signal in an attempt to mitigate the costs of potential future rate cuts on the banking system.
(bolding mine)