A preview of the labour market report for June due at 0130GMT on Thursday 18 July 2019
- Employment Change: K expected +9.0K, prior +42.3K
- Unemployment Rate: 5.2% expected %, prior 5.2% (recall the RBA wants to drive this lower to circa 4.5%)
- Full Time Employment Change: K prior was +2.4K
- Part Time Employment Change: K prior was +39.8K
- Participation Rate: % expected 65.9%, prior was 66.0%
A rising unemployment rate would be a negative input for the AUD. Right now the market is of the opinion the RBA is leaning dovish but is on hold. Higher unemployment would be seen as shifting them even move dovish and likely to cut sooner.
Preview via ASB:
- Australian jobs numbers lifted by a very strong 42,000 last month. The participation rate rose to a record 66% high. The Federal election may have impacted the result with around 80,000 temporary workers hired.
- With these temporary jobs rolling off after the election we expect only a small 5,000 lift in jobs in June. Combined with a tick down in the participation rate to 65.9%, we expect the unemployment rate to stay at 5.2%.
ANZ:
- We expect zero growth in employment in June but the unemployment rate to steady at 5.2%.
- Given the weakness in leading indicators, and with the reversal of the temporary boost from election jobs in May added to the mix, we do not believe that the current strength in employment growth will be sustained
"Can we get that data published so this guy stops hanging around?"
