From the Japanese Cabinet Office yesterday afternoon - the synthetic consumption indicator
This is used as the most reliable monthly guide to the national accounts measure of household expenditure. It fell in June (down 0.1% m/m) but for Q2 as a whole it was strong
- +0.7% q/q (from +0.3% q.q in Q1)
- strongest pace since Q414
- It indicates that private consumption made a significant positive contribution to GDP for Q2
The first estimate of Q2 GDP is published on 14 August
--
ps. yesterday we also got the July eco watchers survey current 49.7 vs 50.2 exp
In the data was further evidence of a stronger consumer ... this from Capital Economics (their take on the data, bolding mine):
- Despite a fall in July, the Economy Watchers Survey still points to solid gains in consumer spending. Today's Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) showed the first drop since March, from 50.0 to 49.7. The result was below the Bloomberg median of 50.2 but closer to our own forecast of 49.5.
- The forecast for the next two to three months also weakened, from 50.5 to 50.3.
- "Household-related activity" dominates the headline with a weight of two-thirds and was unchanged at 48.1.
- "Corporate-related activity" dropped from 52.5 to 51.1
- while "employment-related activity" dipped from 57.2 to 56.8.
- "Manufacturing conditions" declined from 52.1 to 50.5 and points to stagnant industrial production.
- But we would put more emphasis on respondents' views on consumption. The change rather than the level of "household-related activity" tends to provide a good guide to developments in consumer spending. The 5.3-point rise over the past year is on past form consistent with private consumption rising by around 1.5% per annum. While we are forecasting a smaller 1.2% increase this year, this is a positive sign.
