The virus isn't going away
France just reported 30,621 new virus cases in 24 hours, a new record. Another 831 people in the US died yesterday. It's the same trajectory throughout Europe and in much of the world.
The second wave is here and winter hasn't even started. We're at least six months away from any kind of widely distributed vaccine.
I'm optimistic about next summer but this winter is going to be utterly miserable. People will be stuck inside, cases will rise, stimulus will dry up. They're going to get restless and there's a big risk that a real pall falls over the economy.
At the moment, all the focus is on Brexit and the election. The market can more-easily grasp the permutations and there are genuine deadlines involved. It's like a life raft for the mind but the vote isn't going to affect the virus. Half the US will be bitter no matter what happens.
The global second wave is going to be brutal and that the appetite for cooperation and stimulus is waning. People will be increasingly reckless and then it turns into a spiral of cases and lockdown measures and frustration.
Everyone is exhausted...now comes the hard part.
