TD with some insight on recent market moves
This commentary from TD Research resonates. The recent moves in EUR, AUD and CAD after disparate central bank moves is tough to nail down and should keep everyone on their toes.
"It's a topsy-turvy kind of market now, where logic gets flipped on its head. It's also where central bank rhetoric (and policies) remain under fire while market pricing, positioning, and valuations get juiced well ahead of time. The event itself is just a release valve, increasing the confusion about the signal," TD notes.
"That sentiment may capture feelings towards the BoC, BoE, RBA, and even the SNB, where rhetoric and stale policies have been challenged. The RBA was the latest to surrender its YCC policy to market pressure but pushed back on 2022 rate hikes. As a result, AUD tanked but unsurprisingly as we anticipate further USD strength through November. We remain long USD through CAD and CHF and think GBP is the next shoe to drop," TD adds.
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