Fed fund futures show a 83.1% probability that the Fed will move to raise rates again in June
Prior to this week, the probability was just under 80% and it spiked to a high of 87% after yesterday's CPI report and FOMC minutes.
Even though we have a new Fed chair at the helm, things pretty much hasn't changed when it comes to how the market views the timing of the Fed's rate hikes. While the Fed had previously insisted that every meeting is "live", it's hard to imagine them moving in a meeting when the market totally doesn't expect it at all.
Right now, the market is conditioned for a move during meetings with a press conference. And June's meeting will be accompanied by one - along with the Fed's projections, similar to March.
But let's not forget the Fed actually has another meeting before then in May, though the probability of a rate hike that the market is pricing in is a measly 1.2% for May's meeting.
While the Fed continues down the path of raising rates - until the next stumbling block comes along either from the fiscal side or from a slowdown in growth - it's remarkable that the timing of their rate hikes is actually not up to Fed themselves, but instead it's the market that is holding the Fed hostage.
