Will the US pull out of the deal with Iran?
It's probably one that is low risk now but could have a broader sense of a risk-off move when headlines start crossing.
Markets may have already digested that Trump is almost certain to leave the Iran deal by now, but if there's ever one thing that can't be fully priced in it is the magnitude of geopolitical tensions.
The deadline for this will be on 12 May, so expect things to heat up during the week. The latest development is that UK foreign minister Boris Johnson is set to fly to Washington this week in a last-ditch effort to try and convince Trump to stay in the deal.
It's hard to see it working though, after Merkel and Macron also seemingly failed to change Trump's stance on the matter during talks last month.
If not for a risk-off move, this will at least be one to focus on for oil traders.
