But there is some slightly better news for Biden in the cities
This election is going to come down to Pennsylvania and Michigan. Early on, Biden did very well in these states but it was an illusion as mail-in votes were counted before walk-in voters. Now, nearly all the votes have been completely counted and it's not good news for Biden.
In Trumbull, Trump won 53.2% to 45.3%. That's a narrowly-wider margin than the 51.1%-44.8% he won by four years ago. Just south of there in Mahoning county Clinton won in 2016 49.9-46.7%. This time Trump won 50.3%-48.3%. That's a swing of 5 points in Trump's favor. Continuing south, Trump won by 44.6 points compared to 41.8 points last time.
There was good news for Biden in the northeast corner of the state, which borders Pennslyvania as well. It has Biden -7.9 versus Clinton at -18.9.
Shifting to the Michigan border, Williams county has Trump +46.5 with 99% of the votes counted. He won by 44.0 points last time. In neighbouring Fulton Trump is up 39.6 with 95% of the vote in. That compares to 36.1% last time.
If there is good news for Biden it's in the cities and suburbs in Ohio. In Columbus where 87% of the vote is counted it's 64.8-33.7% for Biden; that's better than 60.7-34.5% last time. I'd caution that late-arriving votes seem to be helping Trump though. Similarly, Lucas county which is on the border of Michigan and is where Toledo is located is +22.2 for Biden compared to +17.8 in 2016. Again though, I'd caution that the tally is only 65%.
Looking at the state as a whole with 89% of the votes counted, Trump is up 8.2 compared to 8.1 last time. Much of the remaining vote is in the cities though so Biden should do slightly better than Clinton when it's all said and done.
Considering Clinton only lost Michigan by 0.3 pp and Wisconsin by 0.8 pp, that might be enough. But I also think it means Trump wins Pennsylvania. That would leave the electoral college tied and the result hanging on the extra vote in Nebraska and Maine. Trump would need to win both.
