If Trump pulls off an upset, it will be via black and Hispanic voters
Here's something that few analysts expected: Trump is likely to raise his vote share among black and Hispanic voters today.
To be clear, he's still unpopular in both groups, just not as much as before. If there's a upset in the making today, it will be because those two groups voted for Trump or didn't show up at all.
In the 18-44 year-old demographic, about 21% of black voters support Trump. That's low but it's far higher than the 11% he got in 2016. In a tight election, that could be catastrophic and it explains why Trump has spent the past few weeks courting the support of (potentially) influential rappers.
Democrats are worried. A report today says members of Biden's Florida congressional delegation chastised his state director last week for failing to mobilize black voters around Jacksonville.
It's a similar story among Hispanics, who will be key in the Florida race and other southern battles. According to UCLA Nationscape's polling, Trump is attracting 35% of Hispanic voters under age 45, up from the 22% who voted for him four years ago in the CCES data.
Among all non-white voters Trump lost by 53-points in 2016 but in UCLA Nationscape's polling over the past month, he was down by 39 points with those voters. The Cuban community is especially complicated with some younger Cuban immigrants shifting to Trump.
In all cases, he's done particularly well with men.
If Trump wins, he can probably credit his outreach to those communities for delivering another four years.
