According to a survey conducted by NABE on 251 business economists

  • 91% of respondents said tariffs are unfavourable for US growth
  • ~67% saw negative effects if US withdraws from NAFTA
  • 76% believe Fed monetary policy is on the right track
  • 19% feel Fed's policies are too stimulative
  • 4% feel Fed's policies are too restrictive
  • Most economists expect tax cuts to aid expansion in 2018 before eventually fading

That's quite a chunk of them forecasting that US tariffs will come back to bite the country in the a**. But what is bad for global growth in general will eventually feed through back to the US, that's one way to think about it.

Meanwhile, despite ongoing concerns in emerging markets, more than 3/4 of respondents believe the Fed is still on the right path and it reinforces the notion that September is pretty much a home run already in terms of a rate hike. Let's see if Powell will subtly confirm it this Friday.

Hold the phone. Tariffs are actually bad for global growth?