ICYMI, attacks on Saudi oil facilities over the weekend, check the links for the news and what the implications are:
- Drone attacks cut as much as 5mbpd of Saudi oil production
- It could be 'weeks' before Saudi oil production returns to full capacity
- Goldman Sachs oil price forecasts after the Saudi attack
- Platts on the oil price impact of the Saudi attack
- CAD, yen both higher in thin Monday opening forex markets
- Images released of the extensive damage to Saudi production facilities
- Can Saudi Arabia restore almost half the oil production within just days?
Where we are at is its expected there will be supply disruptions, for how long depends on how quickly the facilities can be repaired, but in the very short term, ie coming days, its expected Saudi can continue supply from stocks. UBS caution:
- spare capacity is limited
- However, spare capacity is primarily in the hands of the Saudis UBS assess this at 70% of spare capacity)
- add that, with 70% of spare capacity, attack is a reminder that large disruptions in Saudi Arabia mean the 'reaction function' of OPEC to cover any supply disruptions is limited
