Latest data released by ONS - 19 February 2019
- Prior +3.4%
- Weekly earnings (ex-bonus) +3.4% vs +3.4% 3m/y expected
- Prior +3.3%; revised to +3.4%
- ILO unemployment rate 4.0% vs 4.0% expected
- Prior 4.0%
- Employment change 167k vs 151k expected
- Prior 141k
- January Jobless claims change 14.2k
- Prior 20.8k; revised to 20.2k
- January claimant count rate 2.8%
- Prior 2.8%
The overall reading here still holds up rather well but the December-month wage growth was just +2.8% y/y, which is the weakest single month rise since June. That said, it's still a solid quarter for UK wage growth as the 3-months to December shows a +1.3% rise in total weekly earnings in real terms; that's the highest since the 3-months to November 2016.
It's not going to do much to change the outlook for the pound though, it's still all about Brexit for the time being. GBP/USD sits at 1.2915 currently, from around 1.2920 before the report release.
