There’s been a lot of talk over the past few days that we will see an upward revision to the preliminary reading from +0.6% to +0.7% due to better than expected data in the interim.
My view is that this level of revision has been factored in and we could yet again see a buy rumour/sell fact scenario today with the release at 08.30 GMT
There’s no doubting that an upward revision is a GBP- positive and of course if it’s better than +0.7% we’ll all applaud loudly and the pound will soar in the short term at least. If it comes in at 0.6% as previously then we’ll see a dip on the immediate disappointment even though it’s a decent number. Any downward revision will definitely cause a big slap lower.
There’s strong resistance at 1.5700-20 still despite popping the barrier earlier this week. Good buy interest still at 1.5550 but with stop loss selling below if breached with more demand seen at 1.5500. Currently 1.5596 with immediate offers reported at 1.5625
Strong sell interest at 0.8585-0.8610 on EURGBP may well come into play if the pound does get sold off, putting a brake on immediate further cable decline.
Of course, it may all just turn out to be an end of week anti-climax.
Let’s hope not.
