Latest data released by ONS - 17 February 2021

  • Prior +0.6%
  • Core CPI +1.4% vs +1.3% y/y expected
  • Prior +1.4%

Slight delay in the release by the source. UK core inflation kept steady to start the year after the bump in December, though much like everywhere else, it is going to be hard to look too much into this due to base effects needing to be taken into account.

Weaker energy prices last year will have to be filtered out in the coming months as well so expect policymakers to brush aside any more positive developments in consumer inflation during 1H 2021 and any overshoot going into 2H 2021 as well.

Some other details on the day as producer price and retail price figures are released:

  • PPI output +0.4% vs +0.2% m/m expected
  • PPI output -0.2% vs -0.4% y/y expected
  • PPI input +0.7% vs +0.5% m/m expected
  • PPI input +1.3% vs +0.6% y/y expected
  • RPI -0.3% vs -0.4% m/m expected
  • RPI +1.4% vs +1.3% y/y expected