Latest data released by Markit/CIPS - 4 November 2020
- Composite PMI 52.1 vs 52.9 prelim
The preliminary report can be found here. Slightly softer revisions to the initial estimates but all of this just reaffirms that the UK economy has lost steam going into Q4 and with a return to lockdown in November, economic activity will take a further hit this month.
That will likely see the BOE take action this week (yes, there is a BOE meeting in case you forgot) to address the shortcomings in the economy after a brief recovery.
Markit notes that:
"October data indicates that the UK service sector was close to stalling even before the announcement of lockdown 2 in England, with tighter restrictions on hospitality, travel and leisure leading to a slump in demand for consumer-facing businesses. This was only partly offset by sustained expansion in areas related to digital services, business-to-business sales and housing market transactions.
"The service sector as a whole recorded its slowest output growth since June, while new orders declined for the first time in four months. A lack of forward bookings in parts of the economy most affected by lockdown measures led to widespread reports of redundancies and another sharp fall in total employment numbers during October.
"November's lockdown in England and a worsening COVID-19 situation across the rest of Europe means that the UK economy seems on course for a double-dip recession this winter and a far more challenging path to recovery in 2021."
