Latest data released by ONS - 10 May 2019
- Prior (Q4) +0.2%
- GDP +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y expected
- Prior +1.4%
- Total business investment +0.5% vs -0.7% q/q expected
- Prior -0.9%
- Total business investment -1.4% vs -2.7% y/y expected
- Prior -2.5%
- Exports 0.0% vs +1.7% q/q expected
- Prior +1.6%
- Imports +6.8% vs +4.5% q/q expected
- Prior +2.1%
The headline confirms a notable rebound in UK GDP in the first quarter of the year but as mentioned many times over the past month, the jump owes very much to Brexit stockpiling as ONS notes that stockbuilding added 0.7% to Q1 growth, excluding alignment adjustments that is. This of course is very much a temporary boost.
The surprising positive for me is that business investment actually grew on the quarter, halting four straight quarters of declines last year. That is a welcome positive for UK businesses in light of Brexit uncertainty.
All things considered, the data here basically confirms the stockpiling factor and as highlighted last month, expect the bullwhip effect to come about and bite back at the UK economy in the coming months/quarters.
Cable ticked higher on the release here from 1.3005 to 1.3021 but quickly gave back those gains to near 1.3000 currently.
