Preview via Nomura for the data due from the UK on 16 August 2018
- Evidence on retail sales in July has been mixed. The reported balance of the CBI distributive trades survey was around its long-run average, while the BRC reported the slowest growth in sales values for three months. The hot weather may have also influenced the pattern of sales, but it is by no means obvious in which direction (in a recent research report we argued that the effect may be insignificantly negative). Even a small monthly rise would increase the annual average pace of growth in official sales to its highest for over a year.
Via Daiwa:
- After the hot weather in Q2 brought a surge in high-street activity with sales up by more than 2.0%Q/Q, we look for a relatively soft start to third quarter, over which we expect sales to slow significantly.
