Latest data released by ONS - 13 October 2020
- Prior 73.7k
- Claimant count rate 7.6%
- Prior 7.6%
- August employment change -153k vs -30k expected
- Prior -12k
- August ILO unemployment rate 4.5% vs 4.3% expected
- Prior 4.1%
- August average weekly earnings 0.0% vs -0.6% 3m/y expected
- Prior -1.0%
- August average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +0.8% vs +0.6% 3m/y expected
- Prior +0.2%
Slight delay in the release by the source. The tick higher in the unemployment rate was sort of predicated by the change in ONS methodology yesterday here.
But the overall impact is still generally masked by the furlough program, though ONS notes that "more people are telling us they are not actively looking for work".
Meanwhile, pay growth is seen recovering as employees continued to return to work following the furlough period in the months back. But overall wage pressures are still largely subdued for the most part i.e. softer inflation pressures.
It is tough to really extrapolate much from the data above apart from the ONS revision resulting in higher unemployment for now. The future trend still holds the key for how the pound will perform and how the BOE will react on zero/negative rates.
