August 2018 US durable goods orders

  • Prior was -1.7% (revised to -1.2%)
  • Ex transport +0.1% vs +0.5% expected
  • Capital goods orders non-defense ex air -0.5% vs +0.4% expected
  • Prior capital goods orders non-defense ex air +1.6% (revised to +1.5%)
  • Capital goods shipments non-defense ex air +0.1% vs +0.5% exp
  • Prior core shipments +1.1% (revised to +1.0%)

The 4.5% rise equals the high for the year (from Feb) and the highest level since 4.7% in September 2017.

The headline number is certainly a strong number. The negative is US made capital goods orders fell after 4 straight months of strong gains and shipments were little changed. The orders are a proxy for business spending plans. It wass pulled down by a decline in demand for computers and electronic products.

The shipments of core capital goods orders up 0.1% is also a bit of a disappointment. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the US GDP report. They did rise 1% in July (down from 1.1%)