The data for sales during September is due at 1230 on Monday 15 October 2018
Preview via Nomura:
- We expect retail sales to increase by a solid 0.7% m-o-m in September, likely driven by a strong rebound in sales at auto and auto parts dealerships. The light vehicle sales in September were strong after a slowdown in August. However, the expected increase in sales of autos and parts will likely be transitory. Excluding autos and auto parts, we forecast a 0.4% m-o-m increase in retail sales.
- For core ("control") retail sales, we expect a healthy 0.5% m-o-m gain for September, following a modest 0.1% advance in August. The weak reading for August came on the heels of a sharp increase in July. Strong incoming labor market data and elevated consumer sentiment suggest momentum in personal consumption growth remains intact. Thus, we continue to expect robust PCE growth to lead GDP growth in the near term. Elsewhere, gasoline prices appear to have trended lower in September after seasonal adjustment. Receipts at gasoline stations will likely slow in September and lower the total retail sales slightly.
If retails sales are along these lines there is nothing on this front to dissuade the fed from its well-publicised interest rate hike oath.
