This via Barclays on the data due from the US Wednesday
We expect durable goods orders to rise by 1.3% m/m in August, driven by a rebound in transportation orders. Within this category, we look for aircraft orders to increase 19.0% m/m, driven primarily by non-defense aircraft orders, which had fallen by 70.8% in July. Orders for motor vehicles and parts are likely to record a modest increase, as indicated by the production data in the August industrial production report. Excluding transportation, we expect durable goods order to be up a more modest 0.1% m/m and look for core capital goods orders to rise 0.3% m/m.
We expect pending home sales to decline 0.5 m/m in August. While mortgage rates have edged lower from the post-election highs, they remain elevated. In addition, mortgage loan applications for purchase have been rather volatile and declined in July and August. Furthermore, traffic of prospective buyers for new homes has slowed in recent months. All these factors taken together lead us to believe that pending home sales are likely to have declined modestly in August.
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Durable goods (August preliminary) due at 1230GMT
- consensus expected 1.0%, prior -6.8%
Pending home sales due at 1400GMT
- consensus expected -0.5% m/m, prior -0.8%
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ps. Although there is data due its importance has been diminished somewhat by the expected tax announcement from President Trump due later in the day (at 5pm NY time)
