–NSA Trade Bal with China -$16.5b, Japan -$4.3b, OPEC -$6.4b
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The U.S. February trade data suggest world trade
revival but also could subtract from U.S. real growth.
The February trade balance printed -$39.7 billion, not far from
expectations, as imports jumped $3 billion and exports rose a lesser
$0.3 billion.
Imports reflected a $2 billion advance in crude oil and natural
gas, and +$1.14 billion in consumer goods, primarily in pharmaceuticals
and electronics. Imports of industrial and consumer goods are at their
highest level since Fall 2008.
Services imports printed +$1 billion, due to royalties paid to
broadcast the 2010 Winter Olympics. This explains the only real surprise
in the data, that most of the trade balance worsening was away from
China. The move in services should not recur, and suggests come of the
imbalance will reverse next month.
Exports were hurt by -$412 million in soybeans and -$821 million in
civilian aircraft. Nevertheless, they posted a small gain based on
engines, semiconductors, and oil-related products.
Crude oil imports fell slightly; volume was at the lowest since
February 1999 and the average price fell 97 cents to $72.92. Crude
prices have since risen and might widen the gap ahead.
The unadjusted trade balance by country included: China at -$16.5
billion (its lowest since March 2009) after -$18.3 billion in January;
Japan at -$4.3 billion after -$3.3 billion; and OPEC at -$6.4 billion
after -$7.2 billion.
On average in January-February, the Q1 real trade gap stands about
2% wider than the Q4 average. This will cut growth marginally.
**Market News International Washington Bureau: (202)371-2121**
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