February US retail sales data:
- Prior was +5.3%
- retail sales ex auto -2.7% vs +0.1% expected
- retail sales ex auto and gas -3.3% vs -0.5% expected
- retail sales control group -3.5% vs -0.6% expected
- Sales up 6.3% from the same period a year ago
Prior numbers and revisions
- January retail sales +5.3% (+7.6%)
- January retail sales ex auto and gas +6.1% (revised to +8.5%)
- January retail sales control group +6.0% (revised to +8.7%)
- Full report (pdf)
This isn't a great report but if you add in the revisions, it's not nearly as bad as the headlines look. Add in the +2.7 pp revision to the control group and you get -0.8%, which is just shy of the estimate.
Of course you have the terrible February weather and storms to disentangle as well so it's tough to draw any conclusions about the consumer with this data. It won't get any easier in March either with more stimulus checks, more reopening and good weather.
Still, sales were up 6.3% y/y SA in February despite the terrible weather and a 17.4% drop in food services & drinking places along with a 4.2% drop at gasoline stations. These numbers are going to be very strong in the months ahead.
