US initial jobless claims for week of August 3, 2019
- US initial jobless claims come in better-than-expected at 209K versus 215K estimate. The prior week was revised higher to 217K from 215K previously reported
- continuing claims 1684K versus 1690K estimate. Prior week 1699K
- four-week average for jobless claims 212.25k versus 211.5 0K
- four-week average for continuing claims 1687.25K versus 1698.2 5K
- The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 27 were in Illinois (+2,369), Iowa (+545), Maine (+72), Vermont (+27), and New Hampshire (+17),
- The largest decreases were in Michigan (-4,429), Kentucky (-3,346), Georgia (-1,832), Pennsylvania (-1,347), and California (-903).
The jobs picture remains solid from the point of view of the jobless claims. The moving average has been trending back to the downside over the last month (see chart above). Employment is what makes policy decisions by the Fed more difficult, while inflation paints a more concerning picture for them. The Trump administration focuses mostly on growth. Peter Navarro was on the wires today urging the Fed to cut rates to increase growth.
