US July consumer confidence data
- Prior was 98.1 (revised to 98.3)
- Present situation 94.2 vs 86.2 prior (prior revised to 86.7)
- Expectations 91.5 vs 106.0 prior (prior revised to 106.1)
- The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months declined from 42.4 percent to 31.6 percent
- those expecting business conditions will worsen increased from 15.2 percent to 19.3 percent
The expectations component is an important leading indicator. You wonder how much the drop has to do with uncertainty about unemployment benefits and the backslide in the virus, but that index is certainly not painting a V.
Here's the commentary in the report:
"Consumer Confidence declined in July following a large gain in June," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "The Present Situation Index improved, but the Expectations Index retreated. Large declines were experienced in Michigan, Florida, Texas and California, no doubt a result of the resurgence of COVID-19. Looking ahead, consumers have grown less optimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market and remain subdued about their financial prospects. Such uncertainty about the short-term future does not bode well for the recovery, nor for consumer spending."
