Preliminary June 2019 US durable goods orders data

  • Prior was -1.3% (revised to -2.3%)
  • Durable goods ex-transporation +1.2% vs +0.2% expected
  • Prior ex-transport +0.4% (revised to +0.5%)
  • Capital goods orders non-defense ex-air +1.9% vs +0.2% expected
  • Prior cap goods non-defense ex-air +0.5% (revised to +0.3%)
  • Capital goods shipments non-defense ex-air +0.6% vs -0.2% expected
  • Prior capital goods shipments non-def ex-air +0.6% (revised to +0.5%)

The revision takes the shine off the headline but the details are extremely strong. Core orders crushed expectations and there was only a small downward revision. The shipments numbers also puts an upward bias into Q2 GDP.

This is another argument for the Fed easing only 25 bps as an insurance cut. However, as you can see, revisions in this report are often the norm.