March 2020 US non-farm payrolls data:
- Worst month since the financial crisis
- Prior was +273K
- Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 3.8% expected (3.5% prior)
- Largest one-month rise in unemployment since 1975
- Two month net revision -57K
- Participation rate 62.7% vs 63.4% prior
- Avg hourly earnings +0.4% m/m vs +0.2% exp
- Prior avg hourly earnings +0.3%
- Avg hourly earnings +3.1% y/y vs +3.0% exp
- Prior avg hourly earnings 3.0%
- Avg weekly hours 34.2 vs 34.1 exp
- Private payrolls -713K vs -132K exp
- Manufacturing -18K vs -12K exp
- U6 underemployment 8.7% vs 7.0% prior
- Household survey shows employment fell 3 million
- Full report
Not the sharp fall in labor force participation. That showed many people stop looking for work. There will be a big focus on unemployment in next month's report but the fall in participation is equally important.
Note that the survey week was March 12 so this missed the vast majority of the job losses. The April report will be far worse.
"Note that the March survey reference periods for both surveys predated many coronavirus-related business and school closures that occurred in the second half of the month.," the report said.
It also highlighted that losses were mainly in bars and restaurants.
"Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction," the report said.
