US consumer price index for November 2019:
- Prior was 1.8% y/y
- Ex food and energy 2.3% vs 2.3% expected
- Prior ex food and energy 2.3%
- Energy -0.6% y/y
Month-over-month data:
- +0.3% m/m vs +0.2% m/m expected
- Prior +0.4%
- Ex food and energy +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
- Shelter +0.3% m/m vs +0.1% prior
The next three months of data in this series are going to be hot because of a soft y/y comp from Nov-Jan a year ago. An inflation scare would dent the Fed's credibility. The risk is that they shift back to a hawkish bias -- something that would be a major blow to risk assets.
From the avg hourly earnings report
- Real hourly wages 0.0% m/m
- Wages +1.1% y/y
