10-year run for Prime Minister Harper could be over
The governing Conservative party will likely lose Monday's Canadian federal election, according to oddsmakers.
Bookmaker William Hill is taking bets on who will be the next Prime Minister and the big favorite is Justin Trudeau at 2/7. He leads the Liberal Party, which is currently the 3rd party in parliament but is ahead in the polls at about 37%.
Harper is second-most-likely at 5/2 with his party polling around 31% and Tom Mulcair and the NDP are third at a longshot 20/1. The NDP were leading the polls at various points but have faded down the stretch.
Canada uses a first-past-the-post electoral system so regional breakdowns are often more important than the national vote. Finally, there's a reasonably high chance Harper could win the most seats but for the Liberals and NDP to form a coalition to oust him with Trudeau as Prime Minister.
That final outcome is probably the only one that would soften the Canadian dollar but I always believe that any 'political fear' FX selling in a stable democracy is a fade trade.
