Spoiler is that no change is the expectation, but there is more to it.

  • Current benchmark rate is at 1.75%, no change expected.

But, say TD (bolding mine):

  • We look for the Bank to leave rates unchanged as it maintains its cautious optimism.
  • While the global backdrop has improved from October, the Bank has been reluctant to acknowledge a deterioration in local data and … upbeat Business Outlook Survey gives some flexibility to stick to the script.
  • This, alongside unchanged GDP forecasts, should result in a hawkish tone.

Scotia:

  • While there is a case for easing now, we don't read the Bank of Canada's comments as having opened the door in favour of acting at this point. There are higher odds of a move toward easing as Spring and Summer approach.

ING:

  • unlikely to change its current stance following better-than-expected labour market data, investors will be keen to look at any change in the Monetary Policy Report outlook to assess the possibility of a cut in the coming months.
  • Markets are still underestimating the probability of BoC easing in our view, and we could see some correction as soon as next week if the MPR forecasts signal a less upbeat tone on the economic outlook.
  • In terms of FX impact, with virtually no easing priced in for the first half of this year, we continue to see the Bank of Canada as a factor that could curb the Canadian dollar in the next few months rather than offer support.

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ps. Inflation data due out just prior to the BoC announcement - timings:

  • Canada December CPI data due at 1330GMT
  • Bank of Canada decision due at 1500GMT (Poloz and Wilkins presser follows at 1615GMT)