An updated view on the AUD from Westpac, issued April 3:

The Aussie remains pricey compared to short term fair value estimates.

  • Yield differentials along the curve continue to move steadily in the US dollar's favour,
  • but the more notable move in recent weeks is the slide in commodity prices, including a 20% drop in spot iron ore in March.
  • Optimism over global growth is being challenged by US-driven trade tensions which pose downside risks to global trade volumes and AUD.

But with sentiment on the US dollar lukewarm, the pressure on AUD is mostly via crosses. We look for USD0.77 end-Jun, and 0.74 end-Dec.

Note - this is 1 to 3 month horizon view from the bank

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AUD daily chart

ps. I'll be back soon with AUD/USD levels for the session ahead

And, coming up today: