This preview is via CBA with their outlook for the AUD the week ahead - no surprise its inflation that features:
- AUD/USD will be guided this week by Australia's 01 CPI report (Tue)
- In line with consensus, we expect 01 underlying CPI to increase by 0.5%.
- We estimate annual growth will increase to 2.0%, the bottom of the RBA's 2-3%pa target range.
- The downside risk to our CPI estimate reflects ongoing weak growth in wages. If this risk materialises, AUD will come under short term downside pressure against most major currencies.
- But Australia's, high terms of trade is providing AUD with strong fundamental support. We estimate the Q1 terms of trade increased by another 31/2-4%. Thursday's international trade price indices give us a sneak peek into the terms of trade.
bolding mine
