A look at the upcoming data
Monday is a holiday in the US so that will compress the trading week. The main focus is going to remain on the virus but optimism is rising about the reopening and expect to read many anecdotal reports about how busy (or not) businesses are at the moment.
It's early for that to seep into economic data but everyone is still trying to get a handle on where we stand overall.
On that, the calendar is heavy on manufacturing and housing data.
Tuesday:
- Chicago Fed national activity for April
- FHFA housing prices for March
- Case-Shiller housing for March
- Conference Board consumer confidence for May
- New home sales for April
- Dallas Fed for May
Wednesday:
- Richmond Fed for May
- Beige Book
Thursday:
- Q1 GDP (second look)
- Durable goods orders for April
- Weekly initial jobless claims
- Pending home sales for April
Friday:
- Trade balance for April
- The PCE report for April
The consensus on GDP is still -4.8% but I expect something lower as the late-March data comes in, though it still may be too early for that.
Here's the playbook from the rates team at BMO:
The upcoming data calendar is full - with several key touchstones including the May Conference Board confidence figures and April's personal spending levels. Our operating assumption remains that April will represent the initial trough for the soft data (sentiment and surveys), while the hard numbers will drift lower throughout the balance of the second quarter. This doesn't imply retesting the lows in rates or stocks is completely off the table, rather that such a repricing would be predicated on a broader deterioration. In pondering what would drive such a collective rethink, the most obvious risk is lockdown 2.0. We anticipate the government efforts to reopen slowly will leave investors with the impression the odds of a fresh round of stay-at-home orders are low.
