Watch out for blue mirages and red mirages in different parts of the country
- Blue Mirage: FL/GA/TX/NC
- Red mirage: MI/PA/WI
Drawing conclusions from initial results today could be a mistake. In Florida, North Carolina, Texas and other southern states, the first results to be reported will be mail-in ballots. Those are going to tilt strongly towards Biden.
In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin it will be the opposite because in-person votes will be counted first, followed by mail-in late in the day.
What's important to remember is that votes are counted by county. Dave Wasserman highlights Sumter County, Florida as one area to watch because 83,139 of Sumter's 105,612 registered voters cast early ballots. Those results are expected quickly after the close and how it compares to 2016 will be an early tell. In that election, Trump won the county 68-29%.
Other counties to watch:
- Maricopa, AZ (where Greg is)
- Pinellas, FL
- Peach, GA
- Marshall, IA
- Kent, MI
- New Hanover, NC
- Wood, OH
- Erie, PA
- Collin, TX
- Sauk, WI
- Macomb, MI
Another one I will be watching is Mark Meadows old district in North Carolina, which reports early. Trump won it 57-40% but a recent poll showed Democrat Moe Davis leading Republican Madison Cawthorn 45-42%.
Here is a list of voting results in every district from the past three elections, adjusted for redistricting.
