The silence is deafening

Hopefully I'm not tempting fate with this post, while long EURUSD but I'll take the risk.

At one point you would have needed a scythe to get through the parity callers in the euro but now you need the Hubble telescope to find them.

I've stolen a look at the forecast page compiled by our mates at eFX News, and there's only eight calls for parity or worse between Q2 2017 and Q4 2018.

Of those eight;

  • Three of those calls are from USD-perma bulls Morgan Stanley (every day)

  • Two are from Westpac (1.0000 & 0.9900 Q3 & 4 2018)

  • BNPP (1.0000 Q4 2017)

  • Goldies (1.0000 Q1 2018)

  • DB (0.9500 Q4 2018)

Summary of EURUSD bank forecasts

What's interesting is that the averages are probably closer to the truth and show a near 300 pip range from now until Q2 2018.

Of course, forecasts are as effective a chocolate fireguard but it's always worth keeping an eye on what the big banks think.

eFX News has the forecasts for pretty much all the currencies. You can get a trial here.