Ray Dalio is founder of the massively successful hedge fund Bridgewater Associates.
He has shared an article explaining his systemized “bubble indicator”, how it works and what it is now showing for US stocks.
What I mean by a bubble is an unsustainably high price, and how I measure it is with the following six measures.
- How high are prices relative to traditional measures?
- Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?
- How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren't previously in the market) have entered the market?
- How broadly bullish is sentiment?
- Are purchases being financed by high leverage?
- Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?
I found the piece via Zero Hedge (link to their article) and they have in turn shared the direct link to Dailo's piece (link here)
Its a thoughtful piece worth checking out if you are intersted.
