What are the odds
Iowa presidential caucuses begin at 8 pm ET(0100 GMT) with voting throughout the state. The first round of results are expected about 30 minutes later and most results will be out in around 3 hours.
The result will be 41 delegates in the first real stage of the US primaries. A candidate needs 1,991 delegates to clinch the nomination so it's inconsequential mathematically but is an important signal.
Bernie Sanders is the betting favorite at 70% at PredictIt and 4/7 at the bookies. He's followed by Biden (25%) and Buttigieg (8%).
The next vote is for New Hampshire on Feb 11. Sanders is a bigger favorite there at 84% on PredictIt but a UMass Lowell poll today puts Sanders at 23% compared to 22% for Biden and Warren at 19%.
So what will the market reaction be? I think there's a small chance that risk trades ebb lower but it's so early in the race and coronavirus headlines are dominating. Eventually, if the market has to weigh Trump vs Sanders, it's going to be tough for risk trades to get off the floor.
