Perhaps the best thing to do to re-live the timeline from 2020, go into the ForexLive time machine and see how we covered it.
Early in the evening and before the election, betting odds initially favored Biden. However, as results came in from states like Florida and early returns in Texas, odds began to favor Trump, particularly as in-person votes were counted first in several states.
The tipping point in markets was around 11:20 pm ET (4:20 am in London, 1:20 pm in Tokyo), when it became increasingly clear that Biden would win Arizona.
"Markets are definitely turning on this and stock futures have surged," I wrote at the time.
Earlier:
A big difference this year may be that we have to wait for Pennsylvania, which is slow to count votes.
There were some big swings on election night in 2020, including an hour earlier at 10:30 pm when voting odds briefly showed Trump in the lead. At that point, US 10-year yields fell to 1.58% from 1.70%.
What was clear very early in the night was that Democrats would win the House, so the question was whether it would be divided or a Democratic sweep. This time, everything is on the table in terms of outcomes (though I assume Republicans will win the Senate).
Another state to watch closely is North Carolina, which was won by Trump in 2020 49.93% to 48.59%. It reports quickly and how that number shifts may be an indication of the mood in the rest of the country. I'll be watching those numbers around 10:30 pm ET, as I was last time.
Earlier than that, we will start to get district level data in places like Florida and Ohio, the early guessing game will be comparing those to 2020 and 2016 results to model what's coming. Now that could be misleading as the demographics supporting each party changes but it will be useful, particularly if there is a big surprise.
Here's a general timeline of when major networks and sources called the key swing states during the 2020 US presidential election:
Arizona - The Associated Press and Fox News called Arizona for Biden on November 3, 2020, at around 11:20 PM EST. However, other networks like CNN and NBC waited until November 12 to call Arizona due to the close vote count.
Florida - Most networks called Florida for Trump on November 3, 2020, at around 11:30 PM EST.
Georgia - Georgia was one of the last states to be called due to a very close count and subsequent recounts. It was officially called for Biden on November 19, 2020, by some news organizations, but unofficially projected on November 6 and betting markets strongly signaled he would win late on November 5.
Michigan - Michigan was called for Biden on November 4, 2020, at approximately 5:55 PM EST.
Nevada - Nevada was called for Biden on November 7, 2020, at around 11:30 AM EST.
North Carolina - North Carolina was called for Trump on November 13, 2020.
Pennsylvania - Pennsylvania, the decisive state in the electoral count, was called for Biden on November 7, 2020, at approximately 11:25 AM EST, which put Biden over the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency.
Wisconsin - Wisconsin was called for Biden on November 4, 2020, at about 2:30 PM EST.
