3 scenarios for US equities(S&P 500)

This in summary from a longer piece from UBS. UBS says:

• The Russia/Ukraine war presents significant uncertainty for equities

And that the Bank analysts used the UBS

• machine learning (ML) model to assess the possible Impacts on the S&P 500 and industries under different scenarios.

Huh. OK then. And goes on:

• Our findings suggest gong risk premiss could be counterbalanced by looser financial conditions and vice-versa. Amid extreme volatility, we see the risk/reward for the S&P 500 as more balanced (4800+ vs <3800)
• Scenario 1: De-escalation: Our model points to the S&P 500 near 4800 at end Q2 as an est. 4+pp Russia risk premium reverses and leg EPS upgrades (-Bpp) and improving growth. Tighter financial conditions act as a headwind (-4p0), with the S&P flattish triii2 as earwigs mesons slow and economic growth decelerates.
• Scenario 2: Uncertainty persists Based on our model, the S&P would rise toward -4600 in Q2 as spillover to EPS/growth and elevated risk premia are offset by pricing out Fed hikes/lower real yields (+4PP). In H2, the S&P is up slightly as Russia risk premium is reversed but real yields rise and earnings revisionsrorowth still slows.
• Scenario 3: Escalation: As oil jumps amid conflict/Russia risk premium (-12pp), the S&P could discount a recession at <3800 on consumer/supply impacts. The P/E typically falls 18-30% around slowdowns/recessons. Fin conditions are a counterbalance (+7pp). Our model points to the S&P recovering to approximately 4300 in Q4.