The dollar was dealt a bit of a light setback from the US PCE report here on Friday but it was also month-end and quarter-end, so that makes it a little tough to read too much into the moves. Equities rounded off June trading in good fashion but the overall market mood has calmed down now, with US futures keeping flat.
Going back to the dollar, it is trading mostly little changed on the day with USD/JPY still a key focus just below 145.00 as highlighted here.
The major focus this month will continue to rest on big data and key central bank decisions. The RBA will kick things off tomorrow but there are some notable ones to be mindful of. Will the Fed extend their pause or decide that June was indeed just a skip and resume hiking in July? The ECB is set to hike rates this month but how will they angle towards September? The BOJ continues to disappoint yen bulls under Ueda's start but will they surprise with any tweaks in July to stem the currency bleed?
And the next round of inflation data is also going to be key. For the UK, stagflation risks are rising. In Europe, core inflation remains sticky. In the US, is there the potential for inflation to come back down more meaningfully and give the Fed more breathing room?
Plenty of questions, still very little answers. And from the data releases today, we won't be getting much as the final manufacturing PMI for the euro area and UK should just reaffirm a major slowdown in the sector for the region itself.
0630 GMT - Switzerland June CPI figures
0715 GMT - Spain June manufacturing PMI
0730 GMT - Switzerland June manufacturing PMI
0745 GMT - Italy June manufacturing PMI
0750 GMT - France June final manufacturing PMI
0755 GMT - Germany June final manufacturing PMI
0800 GMT - Eurozone June final manufacturing PMI
0800 GMT - SNB total sight deposits w.e. 30 June
0830 GMT - UK June final manufacturing PMI
That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.
