Analysts at BCA are expecting a recession for Europe early in 2025:

  • "Our conviction that a recession will engulf Europe early next year is strengthening."

Citing:

  • Leading global growth indicators continue to deteriorate
  • weakening economic activity ahead
  • steepening of the yield curve, the rebound in the VIX, the continued weakening of carry trades, and the relapse of commodity prices are all poor omens
  • data softening in Europe

On the euro:

  • EUR/USD always depreciates significantly after carry trades have unwound
  • wait for the first rate cut from the Fed before selling the euro