The latest outlook, in brief, from the Asian Development bank.
Growth Forecast Downgraded:
- ADB lowers 2024 growth forecast for developing Asia to 4.9% (from 5.0%).
- 2025 growth forecast reduced to 4.8% (from 4.9%).
Key Drivers of Downgrade:
- Weaker-than-expected economic performance in Q3 across some economies.
- Softer outlook for consumption in the region.
Country-Specific Projections:
- China: Growth forecasts unchanged at 4.8% (2024) and 4.5% (2025).
- India: Growth forecasts revised down to 6.5% (2024, from 7.0%) and 7.0% (2025, from 7.2%).
Risks from U.S. Policy Shifts:
- Potential for faster or more significant changes to U.S. trade, fiscal, and immigration policies under President-elect Trump.
- Tariffs on Chinese imports, immigration crackdowns, and tax cuts could disrupt growth in developing Asia.
- Geopolitical tensions and a weaker Chinese property market add to risks.
Inflation Forecasts Lowered:
- ADB now expects 2.7% inflation in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025 (down from 2.8% and 2.9%) due to softening global commodity prices.
Longer-Term Outlook:
- ADB notes that the full impact of U.S. policy changes will likely extend beyond the 2024-2025 forecast horizon.
