The estimates are looking for US consumer inflation to move up to +8.8% y/y in June, with the core reading expected to moderate a little to +5.7% y/y after the +6.0% y/y reading in May.
The thing to note about the inflation data moving forward is that we have seen US energy prices come down, notably gasoline, in the past month or so and that could very well be reflected in today's numbers - if not surely in July.
Long-term inflation expectations have also come down considerably and that is perhaps a sign that inflation may have peaked but the question then is will it fall back towards 2%? More pertinently, how quickly will it do so and how does all of that translate to a "hard" or "soft landing" in the US economy?
The Fed seems unperturbed for now as they stay on the tightening path but there will be more questions that need answering in the months ahead.
In case you missed it, there was a fake leak on the CPI report yesterday as highlighted here.
