Does anyone remember what the banking turmoil was like? It seems like a distant memory now, even if it only happened less than a month ago. As ever the case, markets are quick to move on and right now all the focus is on inflation once again.
US consumer price inflation is expected to decline further from an annual basis in March, with estimates pointing to a 5.2% reading - down from 6.0% in February. That said, much like what we saw in Europe, the monthly figures are set to reaffirm a further rise in price pressures and the core reading is also estimated to tick higher.
Core annual inflation is expected to come in at 5.6% last month, up from the 5.5% reading in February.
That will indeed give the Fed very little comfort, likely reaffirming a 25 bps rate hike next month, should the data come in within estimates. At the time of writing, the CME Fedwatch Tool is indicating roughly 70% odds favouring a 25 bps rate hike with the remaining 30% pricing in no change for the May policy decision.
Given how markets are only going to be focused on the above key risk event today, we might be in for more of a snoozefest in Europe before the action picks up later in the day.
