It is shaping up to be one of the most important weeks of the year for markets and we're only almost done with January. All eyes this week will be on major central bank decisions and they don't come bigger than the ones that are lined up.
The Fed will be the first to kick things off on Wednesday before the BOE and ECB come into play on Thursday. Adding to the volatility in markets will be the US non-farm payrolls on Friday but that will likely just be an afterthought.
The expectation is for the Fed to hike by 25 bps but I fear that even if they do step back on the aggressiveness, the risks are skewed towards a more hawkish tone if anything else.
Meanwhile, both the BOE and ECB are expected to hike by 50 bps with the latter being much of a formality but the former is less straightforward in my opinion. There had already been dissenters for raising the bank rate further in December and as economic conditions worsen with the collapse of consumer spending in the UK, it is pushing policymakers further to the brink. It'll be interesting to see how the split ends up being this time around.
But before we get to the central bank bonanza, month-end trading will steal some of the spotlight.
