It's tough to ignore the Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker after it correctly predicted a super-strong GDP report in Q3 far before economists.
Now it's hinting at strength again with the tracker rising to 2.6% from 1.2% a week ago.
After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and fourth-quarter real government spending growth increased from 1.9 percent, -3.0 percent, and 3.1 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent, 0.5 percent, and 3.6 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.06 percentage points to -0.12 percentage points.
This whole setup of a no-landing scenario without inflation is beginning to feel like the set-up of a rug pull, I'm just not sure in what direction.
