The pair has been caught in a bit of a ping pong range for a while now, holding in between its 100 (red line) and 200-day (blue line) moving averages. After the softer US CPI data seven days ago, buyers were interested to run towards the latter but ultimately that failed as the dollar held its ground following a more hawkish Fed and a selloff in equities.
The BOJ surprise earlier today saw stocks come under further pressure and that saw AUD/USD fall to a low of 0.6629 as we got into the transition from Asia to Europe. But since then, a recovery in risk sentiment has helped to see the pair bounce as well to 0.6680 levels currently - with buyers holding a defense of the 100-day moving average at 0.6740 as well.
That is the key line in the sand for the pair as the downside pressure persists and as equities could potentially come under further pressure. The first litmus test will be how Wall Street takes to the BOJ policy tweak later today. Thereafter, it will be a case of how stocks can perform against the struggling technical outlook here.
That will offer up some key drivers for both the aussie and dollar to work with before the turn of the year.
In looking at AUD/USD, a further drop below the 100-day moving average will then put into focus the 21 November low at 0.6584 before looking towards 0.6500 next.
