Comments (in brief) from the WPAC report on its September 2023 Leading Index.
The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose to -0.34% in September from -0.48% in August.
- Long run of negative, below-trend reads continues.
- Lacklustre growth likely to carry into the first half of 2024.
- Components highlight stabilising activity and reduced drag from commodity prices offset by shaky sharemarket and softening labour market.
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Background info on the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, published by Westpac Banking Corporation in conjunction with the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.
- The main objective of this index is to signal the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future.
- The Leading Index is calculated based on a range of economic data, including components such as: S&P/ASX 200 index, employment indicators, dwelling approvals, commodity prices and the Australian yield spread (10-year Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS) yield minus the 90-day bank bill rate).
