Australian CPI data is due today:
The 'trimmed mean' is a core measure and its expected to have continued higher in Q3 at 1.5% q/q. For the y/y its expected at 5.6%, way above the upper bound of the RBA target band of 2 to 3%.
Preview comment via Westpac:
- The Trimmed Mean is forecast to lift 1.5% in September, matching the March and June quarters, taking the annual pace to 5.6%yr from 4.9%yr, well up from the March 2021 low of 1.1%yr. Our forecast peak is 5.8%yr in December 2022.
On the headline rate, WPAC expect the rise will be softened by government energy rebates:
- The reason for the step down from 1.8%qtr print in Q2 are the significant state energy rebates, particularly in WA and Victoria. Due to these rebates, utility cost are forecast to fall 10.5% subtracting 0.48ppt from the September quarter CPI.
