Australian private survey inflation gauge for June headline is +0.1% m/m vs. 0.9% prior

TD/Melbourne Institute Inflation gauge comes in at +0.1% m/m

• prior was +0.9% m/m in May, which was the largest m/m jump since January 2023

5.7% y/y

• prior 5.9%

Trimmed mean (core or underlying inflation) +0.2% m/m and 5.1% y/y

• priors were 0.8% m/m and 5.2% y/y

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A monthly measure of inflation in Australia provided by the Melbourne Institute in collaboration with TD Securities:

• uses a combination of government-released data and additional information
• includes around 90-100 price series covering a wide range of goods and services across the Australian economy

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Coming up tomorrow from Australia is the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting:

• Only one of Australia big four banks expects the RBA cash rate to remain on hold this week

• ANZ still expect a rate rise from the RBA next week, a +25bp cash rate hike
  • ANZ expects 25bps rate hike from RBA on Tues and scope for AUD/NZD rally next week
• After Australia's better CPI data yesterday NAB still expect a July RBA rate hike
• Westpac reaffirms its forecst for a 25bp Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike on July 4

FWIW I think the hawkish position of Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Bullock indicate a rate hike tomorrow:

• RBA Dep Gov Bullock says employment and economy need to grow below trend for a while
• RBA Dep Gov Bullock says higher rates are the only tool the RBA has to curb inflation

Inflation impact